But good for you if you got the Eagles plus-6.
Patriots Play Close Super Bowls
The Patriots have been the dominant team of recent times, reaching eight Super Bowls in Coach Bill Belichick’s 18 seasons. But despite all their good teams over those years, they never managed to blow out anyone in the big game. Their five wins have been by 3, 3, 3, 4 and 6 in overtime. Their two losses, both against the Giants, also were close, by 3 and 4 points. To cover the 5½ this year, they will have to produce their most dominant Super Bowl victory yet.
Eagles Are Thriving as Underdogs
Coming into the playoffs without Wentz, the Eagles got little respect as the No. 1 seed and were rated as underdogs at home against the Falcons (by 2½) and the Vikings (by 3). But with the backup Nick Foles finding his groove, the Eagles won both games, blowing out the Vikings.
It’s a Big Number
The last eight Super Bowls all have had point spreads of 5 points or fewer. The last time a number was this big was in 2009, when the Steelers were 7-point favorites over the Cardinals. (The Steelers won, but only by 4, and underdog bettors won.)
Super Bowl Is Underdog’s Game
Underdogs are 12-4 against the spread in the Super Bowl over the last 16 years. That includes the Giants’ victory over the 12-point favored Pats in 2008, and the Patriots topping the Rams as 14-point underdogs in 2002.
And the other time the Patriots met the Eagles? In 2005, the Eagles lost by only 3 as 7-point underdogs.
It’s an Underdog’s Year
The playoffs this year have brought surprise after surprise. Underdogs are 5-4 on the field, and 9-1 against the spread. The only favorite to cover was New England, in its playoff opener against Tennessee. When Blake Bortles and Case Keenum are leading their teams deep into the playoffs, you know it has been an unpredictable year.
None of this adds up to a sure thing, or anything close to that. But if you’re thinking about betting the Eagles, know that many of the trend arrows are pointing your way.